How to expand the e-commerce industry?

　　Today I am going to talk about some macro things. The first thing we are going to talk about today is to look at the situation of the macro economy. There are many opinions on the macro economy, but I don’t know what it is.

　　There is a classic global economic cycle called the Kandratiev cycle. This is very classic because he has been using it for so many years and has gone through four complete Kandratiev cycles. The first cycle is marked by steam engines and manual workshops. The third cycle is marked by electricity. The fourth cycle is characterized by the computer Internet. It should reach the bottom in 2020.

　　Let’s take a look at the changes in China’s GDP government over the past 20 years. From 1996 to two thousand years, due to China's reform and opening up and the rapid development of the market economy, it declined after the Southeast Asian economic crisis. After 1995, our second economic climax was characterized by stock market exports. After the global economic crisis in 2008, the momentum declined later. The market has originally had a regulatory role. When the market regulation cannot be done, the market's power will appear, and then the government's conditions will be government intervention, and then the government's reform will be made.

　　China is now a middle-income country, and it is actually very sensitive to government reform. I have been saying it, but it has not changed, so China will continue to hesitate among middle-income countries. Let's take a look at the manufacturing index. In fact, the situation in many manufacturing industries is not optimistic now. Enterprises in the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta are all going bankrupt. Let’s take a look at the current economy. It’s going down in 1920 and 15 years, so our current situation is worse than the economic crisis in 2008. Let’s take a look at the three troikas. Export, fixed asset investment and consumption. These are the three magic weapons to drive economic growth. But now the three troikas have begun to fail, exports have failed, consumption has begun to decline, and fixed asset investment has declined even more seriously. Their China's demographic dividend is getting higher and higher in the cost of listing, and even online products are more expensive than offline products. China now has a gambling debt of up to 207% every year. In this case, fixed asset investment will become smaller and smaller, and in the end it will be useless, and the side effects will become increasingly serious.

　　Let’s look at a new indicator called the Keqiang Index, and a word that often appears on the news broadcast is called the new normal. What is the new normal? That is to say, the economic downturn is a normal trend of economic development. Overall it is getting weaker and weaker. Everyone here is fortunate to serve as a highlight in the economy in our three lives. Because the Internet and e-commerce have become new driving forces for the economy. This is the only highlight. Because after Li Keqiang took office, he promoted innovation and entrepreneurship, and innovation called for the entrepreneurial economy. After a lot of facts and data analysis, we finally concluded that an entrepreneurial economy emerged in the United States. It is precisely because of the entrepreneurial and innovative activities of countless entrepreneurs that the US economy flourished, thus avoiding the speed of the economic recession and breaking the Kandratiev cycle. At the same time, Japan and Germany rose rapidly from the ruins of World War II because they created an entrepreneurial economy.

　　Reflection: The money-burning model deviates from the laws of business. Another scene: the capital market continues to be booming.

　　What happened to a startup O2O company? The money-burning model deviates from two business rules: one is that capital must be implemented as brand loyalty. The second is marginal income ≥marginal costs and expenses. One of the vicious circles: The gross profit margin of the product is always too low. The second of the vicious circle: The marginal cost is always too high. The third riO of the Vicious Circle is always too low. The economic cost of the Circle 4 is always high. The opportunity for e-commerce lies in the downward movement of consumption and the lipstick effect. Due to the recession of the economic environment, consumption cannot be stimulated, but due to the lipstick effect, e-commerce has been able to rise. During the economic crisis, lipsticks sell very well because you can’t afford luxury goods, so buy a lipstick and bring yourself a good mood. Therefore, good-quality and low-priced products will continue to sell well. The development of e-commerce in recent years is actually due to the economic decline, and then a habit has been formed, and the penetration rate has exceeded 18%. It may be evenly matched in the future. This is unstoppable development of e-commerce. So how do e-commerce make profits? Some companies are very expensive, but why do they burn money?

　　Two directions of profitability between e-commerce and O2O. His logic of making money is different. For many companies, what we earn is the customer's money, and the essence is the impact of the brand. He is a one-person-centered production to increase revenue and reduce expenditure. Overall, the form is not optimistic.

　　We want to return to traditional values. Profits, cash flow and prisoner's dilemma. The platform must win in scale competition. For example, No. 1 store Dangdang.com, the finished products of tenants are missed and have not made a comprehensive super platform like JD.com and Tmall, so there is no opportunity. Brands must win in the ability to compete. No brand without bargaining cannot have a prisoner's dilemma. Many times, e-commerce companies want to cut their losses and maintain market rankings, but they have to absorb profits.

　　Transformation: Deepening industry / O2O / Capital operation.

　　One of the directions of e-commerce transformation is the Schengen industrial chain. The second direction is O2O. The third direction of transformation is capital operation.

　　Turning point: From structural optimization to quality innovation.

　　There are two names here, one is structural optimization and the other is quality innovation. What is structural optimization? Change business models or supply chains. What is structural optimization? Change the industrial structure. What is quality innovation? New technologies, new products, new tools and methods. A use of all kinds of new things.

　　So what has e-commerce changed? I think our vision should be a long-term focus and should not be just about ranking. If e-commerce is popular now, e-commerce will no longer be prosperous in the future.

　　Brand competition, be the first and be the only one.

　　The impetuous era needs more precipitation, and the Internet era generally seeks bigness and speed. Big fish eat small fish, fast fish eat slow fish, and forget the precipitation of the brand. Industry success. In the end, no solid barriers were established. Many Internet companies are like Genghis Khan's former herds cart. Although they quickly had a large area of ​​territory at home, they immediately went to the land again, which was a flash in the pan and was ineffective.

　　Running a business is a long-term run. Over the past few decades, many traditional companies have experienced the following crazes. If they have not been eliminated, then congratulations.

　　With so many trends, as long as you seize one of them, you can ensure the glory of the company. Building a business is a long-term run, and opportunities will only be left to those who are prepared. As long as you are alive, you will have opportunities. Hot and beautiful, strong and beautiful, be the first, be the only one, have the future, and have the world.

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