Four factors that must be considered for post-holiday promotion

　　A new year has a new beginning. I believe that many sellers are planning for the new year at this time. So, how should we plan for the new year? What issues should be considered when planning? Generally speaking, when formulating promotion plans, the platform activity rhythm, industry rhythm, store past situation and activity rhythm are four factors that must be considered. We may consider the peak season/off season, season change, store launch, store activities, platform activities, store promotion consumption in previous years, etc.

　　Next, I will explain in detail how these four factors affect promotion planning.

　　1. Platform activity rhythm

　　The platform activity rhythm we are talking about here mainly refers to the platform's official activities, such as the 520 Renewal Season, mid-year promotion, Double 11, Double 12, New Year's Goods Festival, etc. Why should we grasp the rhythm of official activities? Because during the official event, the platform will conduct publicity on the site, both inside and outside, online and offline, attracting a large amount of traffic to enter the platform. This is a good time for the store to promote, but it is also a time when the promotion costs are high. Because for small and medium-sized stores, we must understand the time when large merchants are promoting, so that we can not only enjoy traffic but also avoid fighting with large merchants.

　　For large stores, consumption will generally be increased during the preheating stage of the event, because the official venue has been opened during preheating, and the store needs to accumulate traffic for the event products to improve the conversion during the event. Therefore, for small and medium-sized stores, you need to make efforts in the accumulation period before the preheating period, to increase traffic when the preheating period, and sell when the preheating period, rather than waiting until the activity period to convert.

　　Especially for some large-scale platform activities, pre-sales are usually done during the warm-up period, which means that they cannot be sold normally. At this time, small and medium-sized stores can plan store activities to convert traffic in advance based on this point in time. Therefore, as long as you grasp the rhythm of the official event, even if you cannot participate in the official venue, you can use the official event to increase the sales of the store.

　　2. Industry rhythm

　　The industry rhythm is to master the industry rhythm during the peak and off-seasons of the whole year, which is conducive to arranging when and what type of baby the store promotes.

　　From the trend chart of the annual sales of skirts and dresses in the figure below, it can be seen that except in summer, skirts have ideal sales at other times; for dresses, the sales volume in spring and summer will decline afterwards. It can be seen that for the same skirt, there is a clear difference in the industry rhythm of skirts and dresses.

　　Let’s look at the sales trends of down jackets and leather jackets. Leather jackets have been popular since autumn, and there will be a small peak after the Spring Festival; while down jackets are highly concentrated in a quarter of winter, and sales will plummet afterwards. Therefore, there are obvious differences in the promotion rhythm for down jackets and leather jackets in winter clothing. For leather jackets, the promotion cycle is relatively long, while the promotion cycle of down jackets is relatively concentrated, and the industry competition is relatively large. Therefore, in view of the industry attributes of the store baby, it is necessary to formulate corresponding promotion plans to keep up with the industry rhythm.

　　The annual sales of skirts and dresses, down jackets and leather jackets

　　In addition, stores that sell seasonal babies (such as clothing, shoes and hats, etc.) also need to plan promotion of activities for different types of babies during the seasonal change period. This type of store can usually use the clearance to select new babies, because the store traffic is relatively large when clearance is clearance, and it is just right for these traffic to select and measure babies. As shown in the figure below, winter clothes can be cleared in the near future, and at the same time, planning activities and corresponding promotion plans for selecting, testing, baby training and creating hot products for spring and summer babies.

　　Women's Baby's First Quarter Baby Planning

　　3. Previous promotion plan of the store and this year's activity plan

　　The store’s previous promotion planning should also be considered. By comparing the gap and trends of the store’s monthly promotion expenses last year with the stores at the same level in the industry, the distribution of store promotion consumption this year is planned. In this process, the promotion plan must be modified according to the activity arrangements in the store operation planning.

　　Previous promotion plan of the store

　　As shown in the figure above, compared with stores at the same industry and level, the consumption ratio of this store in September-October is significantly lower. If the store hopes to increase its turnover on Double 11, it often needs to increase its promotion investment from September-October instead of making efforts until early November. Therefore, this store has increased its budget for September-October in last year's plan. At the same time, the budget for May also increased significantly, because the store plans to register for the mid-year promotion, so in May, it plans to register for two Juhuasuan games to increase the sales of the store's main promotions. According to Juhuasuan’s budget in previous periods, the budget consumption of Juhuasuan in May was set.

　　To sum up, in the process of promotion planning, we must not only consider the store’s previous planning and store activity arrangements, but also consider the rhythm of industry and platform activities. Only by mastering the data of these four parts can we better plan the store’s promotion.

　　Store promotion planning ideas

　　4. Estimate the traffic and store profits that the promotion can bring

　　In addition to the planning of promotion consumption, we also need to estimate the traffic and store profits that promotion can bring. The traffic that promotion can bring is relatively easy to calculate. As long as you master the click cost and the increase in click cost of previous promotions, you can calculate it. But how to estimate the store profit? First of all, we need to understand the relationship between paid promotion and store profit. Can paid promotion bring store profits? Disaster! If the profit margin of a store is 10%, then the paid promotion ratio of this store must be more than 10, and the promotion will have profits. For example, a store’s profit margin is 10%, and it consumes 1,000 yuan per day in promotion and production ratio is 3. Then paid promotion can bring a turnover of 3,000 yuan, including a cost of 2,700 yuan and a profit of 300 yuan. If the promotion consumption is reduced by 1,000 yuan, the store’s profit will lose 700 yuan. If and only if the promotion and production ratio of this store is 10, then there is a turnover of 10,000 yuan, of which 1,000 yuan of profit can be deducted from the promotion consumption of 1,000 yuan. As can be seen from the figure below, unless the store’s profit margin is very high, paid promotion is generally difficult to bring profit to the store.

　　The relationship between profit margin and production ratio

　　So what can paid promotion bring to the store? flow! When the store's traffic and sales volume increase, the store's level will increase and the natural traffic will also increase. At this time, the store will have profits, which means that the store's profit comes from natural traffic rather than paid traffic. Based on the click cost, conversion rate, organic traffic and its conversion status of paid traffic, we can calculate the store's turnover and profit:

　　Store profit = (natural traffic *natural traffic conversion rate + paid promotion consumption/click cost *paid promotion conversion rate) *Unit customer price *Store profit margin - paid promotion consumption;

　　We introduce an indicator: traffic ratio = natural traffic/paid traffic.

　　Then the above formula can be written as:

　　Store profit = (traffic ratio * Free traffic conversion rate + paid promotion conversion rate) *Unit customer price *Store profit margin *Paid promotion consumption/click cost - paid promotion consumption;

　　When the store profit = 0, traffic ratio = click cost/(Unit customer price *Store profit margin)/free traffic conversion rate-paid promotion conversion rate/free traffic conversion rate.

　　Take a store as an example. The average customer price of this store is 586 yuan, and the profit margin is about 10%. So what is the ratio of natural traffic to paid traffic during the paid promotion process of this store? How can this store not lose money? Through the above formula, we can calculate that when the natural traffic of this store is about 70% of the paid traffic, this store will not lose money when doing paid promotion. The current traffic ratio of this store is 2.45, which is already making a profit.

　　The above table is relatively ideal calculation method. When it can also give an estimate direction. If you want to estimate more accurately, you can estimate it based on the situation of each baby, different paid promotion channels (direct trains, drilling exhibitions, Taobao, etc.), and different free traffic channels (such as purchases, searches, etc.).

　　Summary: When doing promotion planning, the industry rhythm, platform activity rhythm, store previous planning, and this year's activity planning all need to be considered. Considering the industry rhythm is mainly to plan the promotion consumption of activities such as new store and baby training; while the platform activity rhythm is mainly to grasp the promotion and deployment of large festival activities. Before the event begins, accumulate traffic for the store in advance. When the event is approaching, decide whether to grab traffic through promotion or avoid competing with big merchants based on the platform traffic and the level of the store. This year's promotion plan can also refer to previous plans and be combined with this year's event arrangements. After reasonably allocating the budget, the store's profit trend can be estimated based on the baby's profit margin, the conversion rate of paid/free traffic, and the production of paid promotion.

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