As the new policy on online car-hailing has begun to be implemented, online car-hailing has begun to shift to mid-to-high-end fields, and shared travel has gradually focused on shared bicycles. Whether shared bicycles can become the next hot topic on the Internet is also a hot topic recently.
Is shared travel a pseudo-need?
I think the key to whether shared bicycles will become the next trend in the Internet lies in whether the " last N kilometers " is a pseudo demand.
Whether it is a pseudo-demand has several hard indicators:
1. Is there a suitable user group?
ofo has obvious college student labels. Such target positioning may be easier, but there are obvious flaws in quantity and stability.
Mobike’s label is fashionable and beautiful, and the slogan is “green travel, healthy exercise”. This is very fashionable and attractive, but it is too much benchmarked against the petty bourgeoisie group. China's petty bourgeoisie is not as much as the founder of Mobike imagined. More importantly, real young bourgeoisie is generally rich, and travel tools are more about online ride-hailing. Pseudo-bourgeoisie will experience it for a fashionable experience, but it will not take too much energy to use.
Real demand must meet the characteristics of stability, high frequency and large quantity , and office workers in the city who "walking when the sun rises and returning when the moon rises" are the natural target group.
2. Is there any demand
Taking Shanghai, where public transportation is relatively developed, as an example, there are subways in long distances and buses in medium distances, while short-distance travel solutions are in a state of chaos. The current solution for office workers is:
1. If you squeeze a short-distance bus for 1 yuan, you may not be able to squeeze in if you are tired and traffic jams;
2. If you buy a bicycle or electric car, the parking fee is 1 yuan. You have to worry about the car being stolen, the tires being punctured or natural damage;
3. Increase your rental budget and rent a place close to the company.
The well-known competitors of shared bicycles are these three travel solutions, while the well-known opportunities are office workers’ dissatisfaction with these three solutions.
Currently, shared bicycles are mostly charged by hour and need to be placed in areas designated by the APP and cannot enter the community.
1. The price of 1 yuan per hour is the same as that of a short-distance bus, but you don’t need to be crowded with many people, and there will be no traffic jams. It is better to experience within 5 kilometers than a short-distance bus. It is also unnecessary to better solve the travel situation in extreme weather such as heavy rain, heavy snow, and strong winds.
2. The price of 1 yuan per hour is twice as expensive as parking fee of 1 yuan, but purchasing bicycles and electric vehicles yourself requires one-time payment, and you need to worry about theft of the car, daily maintenance, and normal losses. Generally speaking, depending on personal needs, individuals prefer to share bicycles.
3. For office workers who rent a house near the company, the advantages of shared bicycles are more obvious, and everyone knows the abnormal housing prices. What's more, the two do not conflict. Many people are willing to ride 1 to 2 kilometers by spending 1 yuan and saving 10 to 20 minutes.
3. Can demand support the shared travel industry
The latest statistical bulletin released by the Shanghai Municipal Bureau of Statistics shows that the total number of permanent residents in Shanghai at the end of 2015 was 24.1527 million. As a modern city, the proportion of office workers in Shanghai is quite high. With the continuous recommendation of China's urbanization process, China's urban population will increase, and the travel demand of office workers will be astronomical, enough to support several giant companies, and the demand volume will even exceed Didi.
What is the well-known problem of shared bicycles?
1. Experience problem
"Green travel, healthy exercise" is a big slogan for shared bicycles, but when exercise becomes work and exercise becomes daily, I think there will not be too many people I like. I rode a bike to work, but I was so tired that I was sweating heavily and my clothes smelled like sweat. I think few people could stand it, let alone girls wearing work clothes, not to mention the scorching sun and the cold wind.
There are also solutions. Currently, there are companies in Shanghai who are trial-operated shared electric vehicles, which not only solves the appeal problem, but also expands the travel distance from 1 to 5 kilometers to 5 to 10 kilometers, gaining a larger customer base.
2. Price issues
Although 1 yuan is not expensive for 1 hour, it is not a small amount of money when this money becomes daily consumption. Especially for customers under 2 kilometers, it is obviously inappropriate to ride for a few minutes.
However, this is not the main contradiction. After all, it is cheaper and more convenient than buses. Payment plans suitable for different groups such as billing by minute, hourly billing, cumulative time billing, monthly and annual services can be launched.
3. Operational issues
News about bicycles being intentionally damaged, stolen, parked, and hidden for their own use are often common in newspapers, which also brings considerable operating pressure. This is a matter of user education and the implementation of social rules.
User education requires a lot of time and energy. Different cities have different user qualities and education costs are also different. The implementation of social rules requires close cooperation with relevant government departments to impose different punitive measures on illegal and irregular behaviors.
This requires the company to formulate a stable expansion strategy and not to blindly occupy the market. In order to avoid overall collapse due to the failure of individual markets.
4. Cost issue
The high manufacturing and operating costs of shared bicycles are also a big problem. Not only is the high cost of bicycles, but the long-term cost of bicycles are difficult, including human damage, daily damage, and long-term cost recovery. But in the Internet era, cost has never been a problem. As long as it reaches scale, nothing is a problem. The market for shared travel is very large. It is normal for high initial market costs to remain high, which is also the reason why capital giants can penetrate all aspects.
5. Problems not to enter residential areas or office areas
This mainly takes into account the efficiency of sharing. After all, many communities in China are currently closed, and it is necessary to demarcate the placement area. This cannot be solved by a single travel company.
Anyone with any good comments welcomes discussion.
The real problem with bike sharing: not being able to be found quickly
In fact, as long as it can meet user needs with high cost performance, nothing is a problem, and this is a well-known problem of shared bicycles.
According to my observations on the travel market and interviews with friends who use shared bicycles around me, the current well-known complaints of shared bicycles cannot be quickly found.
It must be clear that going to work is not a very romantic thing, and wasting time on finding a car is a very scam. Only when users can ride and set off anytime, anywhere, can they truly replace the current chaotic short-distance travel solutions. Most of our company’s friends gave up sharing bicycles because they had to waste time finding cars when they were at work.
This requires the support of big data, not just a problem of increasing the number of investments, because it is likely that a certain area will be idle in large quantities and an area will be extremely in short supply. Only by achieving accurate delivery, taking as you go, and walking as you want, can shared bicycles truly replace the current chaotic short-distance travel solution.
My advice is:
1. Promote shared bicycles for 1 to 5 kilometers, and promote shared electric vehicles for 5 to 10 kilometers.
2. On the basis of considering profits, we will launch payment plans suitable for different groups such as billing by minute, hourly billing, cumulative time billing, monthly and annual services.
3. In terms of development strategy, we should pursue the stable strategy of "building high walls, accumulating grain, and slowing down the king", and build one market well and then build the next market, without casting a big net, which will harm the user experience.
4. The most important thing is to make full use of big data, achieve accurate delivery, take as you go, and leave as you want.
At present, the shared travel market is still in its infancy, and even in Shanghai, there are many problems that need to be solved. Entrepreneurs must not be impatient and let users stay at the stage of trying something new.
(Because I live in Shanghai, some views may not match the country, so we can discuss the details together)
This article was originally published by Laogao Crown Club, the Laogao e-commerce circle. Reprinting is welcome. Please indicate the author and source when reprinting.
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